The hottest Tianjiao high level fluctuates seasona

2022-09-29
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Tianjiao high volatility seasonal top construction

one week Market Overview:

this week, Tianjiao market first suppressed and then rose, showing a high volatility pattern as a whole. The ratio of Shanghai Jiao's position to inventory rose again, indicating that the trend of short-term speculative funds is still the dominant trend of Shanghai Jiao

the trend of Tokyo rubber market is slightly stronger than that of Shanghai rubber, and the crude oil price is stable above $120, which once again boosted the confidence of the market. In the short term, the continuous reduction of natural rubber inventory also constitutes an important support for the price of natural rubber

due to the strength of domestic spot prices, in the process of the decline of Shanghai Jiao futures price this week, the spot premium rose again, effectively restricting the downward space of Shanghai Jiao in the short term. The rise of the warehouse holding ratio also reflects the intention of the investment funds to continue to squeeze empty in the short term. Therefore, the change of Tianjiao inventory in the future will be the decisive factor to determine the seasonal adjustment space of Tianjiao. At present, the weather in Thailand remains normal, which undoubtedly increases the downside risk of Tianjiao forward contract. If the supply of natural rubber in Thailand is normal, it is expected to exert great pressure on the forward contract, and the reduction of inventory is expected to be difficult to maintain

The trend of crude oil is another important factor affecting the price of natural rubber. At present, the price ratio between Tianjiao and crude oil is at a historical low, so the positive incentive of crude oil price rise to Tianjiao price is more obvious, which is mainly reflected in the position confidence of Tokyo market funds

from the position of Tokyo rubber fund last week, the fund above 330 yen showed a more cautious attitude. Although the main contract price of Tokyo rubber rebounded to above 330 yen again, the net long position of the fund has decreased by 20% compared with the previous period, which is the lowest level in the past month. Therefore, driven by the rebound in crude oil prices, Whether the fund can increase its long position again at a high level is crucial to judge the trend of Japanese rubber in the next stage

technically, Shanghai Jiao was effectively supported near the 20 day moving average, but in the short term, it was pressured by the fact that its rising trend line was on the 25400 line, and the medium-term resistance was near 25800. Before the gap above 25800 was filled, the pattern of Shanghai Jiao's shock peaking remained unchanged. The trend of Tokyo rubber is slightly stronger, and the resistance level is mainly in the line of the previous high

in terms of operation, if HuJiao closes negative on line 26000, you can try to sell short

relevant market dynamics of natural rubber:

1 Major futures markets in the world (-)

varieties

opening

highest

lowest

closing

ups and downs

position changes

Shanghai Jiao 809 contract

25240

25410

24235

24950

-290

-546

Japan rubber 810 contract

318.6

336.4

313.4

334.1

+16.2

+12649

new (RSS3) 807

302.25

315.5

302.25

315.5

+8.75

-600

Thai (RSS3) 901

94.75

101.8

93.75

101.8

+6.6

+p>+134 Japanese glue unit: yen/kg;the

Shanghai Jiao unit: RMB/ton

Singapore No.3 cigarette glue unit: cents/kg

Thailand No.3 cigarette glue unit: Thai baht/kg

2. The spot listing price of China Rubber No. 5 standard glue

time

the listing quantity

the average price

the spot premium

2008/6/2

26040

+640

2008/6/3

757

25963

+528

2008/6/4

462

26107

+677

2008/6/5

595

26154

+549

2008/6/6

635

26001

+1

3 Spot price of natural rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone ()

variety

place of origin

market price

price unit

price terms usually formulate the standard experimental method of unified 1

RSS3

Thailand

USD/ton

bonded area warehouse picking up

str20

Thailand

no quotation

USD/ton

pick up in bonded area warehouse

sir20

Indonesia

USD/ton

pick up in bonded area warehouse

SMR20

Malaysia

USD/ton

delivery in bonded area warehouse

note: RSS3 quotation is 3140 USD/ton, The general trade cost is 28960 yuan/ton (2600 selective tariff, RMB exchange rate of 6.9348, freight of 30 dollars/ton, port miscellaneous charges of 200 yuan/ton.

the quotation of No. 20 standard glue is 3080 dollars/ton, and the cost of composite glue is 26695 yuan/ton.

4. The latest price quotation of natural rubber outer disk (June 6)

variety

origin

market price

price unit scaffold fastener safety testing machine

price terms

shipment date

RSS3

Thailand

USD/ton

CIF Chinese port

June

SMR20

Malaysia

USD/ton

CIF Chinese port

June

str20

Thailand

USD/ton

CIF Chinese port

June

Sir20

Indonesia

USD/ton

CIF Chinese port

June

svr10

Vietnam

no quotation for now

USD/ton

CIF Chinese port

June 5 Malaysian spot market (SMR 5: Malaysian standard glue 5)

date

SMR CV

SMR l

SMR 5

SMR GP

SMR 10

SMR 20

331.25

325.95

310.10

307.00

306.40

301.00

327.80

322.55

304.70

303.80

301.60

301.00

330.90

325.85

307.55

304.40

303.80

308.75

/p><332.75

328.50

312.50

31 1.60

309.40

308.75

333.65

329.25

314.80

311.65

311.00

311.50

6、 The latest centralized ordering market of Qingdao International Rubber Market (June 6)

variety

order quantity

opening today

highest

lowest

latest

trading volume

rise and fall

tsr0806

36

3040

3015

3035

18

38

tsr0807

66

3025

3025

3020

26

30

tsr0808

192

3015

3020

3009

3015

294

25

tsr0809

321 6

3015

3019

2987

3016

4936

29

TSR0810

424

3007

3009

2979

3003

670

26

TSR0811

56

2995

3000

2991

3000

32

36

RSS0806

10130

2830

2830

2760

2818

798

10

RSS0807

28

2745

2746

2745

2746

80

6

RSS0808

140

2743

2750

2743

2750

6

10

7、 Thailand's official FOB quotation at noon (June 6)

type/grade

F.O.B quotation

July 2008

August 2008

Bangkok

songka

Bangkok

songka

cigarette glue

RSS 1

104.50

104.25

104.70

104.45

rss 2

103.90

103.65

104.10

103.85

rss 3

103.35

103.10

103.55

103.30

rss 4

103.05

102.80

103.25

1 03.00

Thai standard glue

RSS 5

102.60

102.35

102.80

102.55

STR 5L

104.30

104.05

104.50

104.25

STR 5

102.40

102.15

102.60

102.35

str 10

101.70

101.45

101.90

6 is to strengthen the release of supervision and spot check results 101.65

str 20

101.30

101.05

101.50

101.25

Latex

66.70

66.45

66.90

66.65

weekly latest data

1. The latest inventory weekly report of natural rubber of Shanghai Futures Exchange (June 6)

the latest inventory trend chart of natural rubber of Shanghai Futures Exchange. (source: Xiangcai Qinian futures)

note: the reprinted content is indicated with the source. The reprint is for the purpose of transmitting more information, and does not mean to agree with its views or confirm the authenticity of its content

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