The hottest Tianjiao fell sharply and bottomed out

2022-09-27
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Tianjiao: after the deep decline, the shock bottomed out

the rare financial crisis also triggered a sharp decline in the commodity market for decades. In just three months, from the collapse of natural gas prices to the collective collapse of commodity prices, almost no industrial products or agricultural products have survived the financial tsunami. The price of natural rubber in China also fell from a high of 28000 yuan/ton to less than 13000 yuan/ton. The speed and range of the decline are amazing

there is a certain inevitability for the price of natural rubber to fall in the third quarter, which is related to the attribute of its agricultural products (15.94, -0.24, -1.48%, bar) (000061, stock bar). The third quarter is the peak period of tapping in the main production area of natural rubber. In previous years, during July November, the output of natural rubber showed a trend of increasing month by month. Therefore, the price of natural rubber in the third quarter. 4. Impact professional high-precision sensors will always face the pressure of increased supply

the weakness of the rubber end consumer market has a far greater impact on the price of natural rubber than the trouble caused by the increase in production. Since July, China's economic situation has shown obvious signs of slowing down. On the one hand, the growth rate of M2 supply in China fell rapidly from 18% in May to 16%, and fell below 16% in August. The slowdown in the growth rate of money supply reflects the tightening of the country's monetary policy, which also directly has a greater negative impact on industrial production. Then, the value of China's manufacturing index (545.213,0.14,0.03%, bar) fell below the 50 balance line in July, and ran below the 50 line for two consecutive months, indicating a significant slowdown in domestic industrial manufacturing. At the same time, China's auto sales fell in August, and the consumption rate should be gradually increased. This is the first time in four years that China's auto production and sales have declined at the same time. However, the global auto sales have declined to varying degrees in various regions. The depression of the auto market has directly led to the decline in the market's expectation of future tire demand growth. Therefore, the decline of Tianjiao terminal demand undoubtedly brings the heaviest pressure to the rubber market. Considering both supply and demand factors, it is reasonable that the price of natural rubber fell in the third quarter

judging from the current situation, if the terminal demand cannot recover, it is quite difficult for the price of natural rubber to change the current bear market pattern, and the products made of natural rubber have higher flame retardancy. But after the crash, the irrational decline also needs to be corrected. The opportunity of rebound should be after the stable transition of financial markets and the overcoming of market panic

to sum up, the author believes that the price of natural rubber at 12000 yuan/ton should not have the conditions to continue to fall deeply, while the market panic still needs time to adjust. It is expected that in the short term, the domestic rubber price will be at the bottom of the contraction, zigzag and shear experimental space construction stage between the regional test bench and the lower beam of yuan/ton

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