The hottest Tianjiao rose strongly, and the downst

2022-09-20
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Tianjiao rose strongly, and the downstream demand was still weak.

affected by the intensifying U.S. financial crisis, the automotive industry continued to report layoffs and production stoppages. People's negative outlook for the automotive industry directly led to people's concern about rubber demand, and also triggered the Tianjiao slump. The sharp decline of Japanese rubber during the domestic market closure also worried about the prospects of Shanghai rubber. Therefore, in this round of commodity market crash, The domestic Tianjiao market "topped" the list of falling limits. Since the resumption of trading during the National Day holiday, Shanghai Jiao almost closed at the falling limit. In the past two weeks, Shanghai Jiao has had seven falling limits, with a decline of nearly 30%, but this rate is still not as fast as that of Japan Jiao

this round of sharp decline disrupted the normal production and trading of all links of the rubber industry chain. Some small factories have begun to default and refused to accept high priced shipments in the early stage. In order to cope with the situation in the Chinese market and the decline in rubber prices, the international rubber alliance established by the main rubber producing countries Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia jointly discussed the current problems of natural rubber this week, and a series of measures to raise the price of rubber in the main rubber producing countries, It may cause a rapid rebound after the sharp fall of Tianjiao

I. the reduction of production in the main rubber production area corresponds to the sharp decline of rubber price

1 Indonesia announced a 30% reduction in production

in response to the declining price of natural rubber this week, the Indonesian Minister of agriculture's suppliers with excellent product quality and high comprehensive cost performance announced that the Indonesian government plans to cut rubber production and exports by 30% this year to raise the rapidly declining rubber price. Suharto honggokusumo, President of the Indonesian Rubber Association, said, "the Ministry of agriculture has asked farmers to adjust the frequency of rubber cutting from the usual once every two days to once every three days in order to reduce the supply of raw materials entering the market."

Indonesia is the second largest rubber producer in the world. In 2007, the output of natural rubber was 2.755 million tons, and the export volume was 2.406 million tons, accounting for about 25% of the global supply. Indonesia is expected to produce 2.9 million tons of natural rubber this year. If the production is reduced by 30%, it will be nearly 700000 tons less than that in 2007

2. The international rubber union may limit supply

the international rubber Union will hold a meeting this week to discuss specific measures to support the price of natural rubber. The organization was formed in 2001 by three major rubber producing countries in the world -- Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia. The total rubber production of the three countries accounts for more than 70% of the total global supply

although officials of IRCO members refused to disclose the contents of the meeting. However, market participants expect that the organization will discuss measures to intervene in the market. Possible measures will include limiting supply, which is commonly used to evaluate the quality of wire rod for rivets in order to reduce the excess of rubber in the international market, and turn it into inventory, so that it can be sold again when the rubber price is high

3. Some Chinese traders defaulted, and the main producing countries suspended quotation to China

the sharp decline of natural rubber caused many domestic traders to suffer losses, and some powerful traders could barely bear the losses, but some small traders began to default, refused to accept the high price ships in the early stage, and some natural rubber "abandoned" by buyers was squeezed in Qingdao port. Shidong, one of the largest Tianjiao enterprises in the world, has only 5N rubber at full load. In order to avoid greater losses, the company has decided to significantly reduce production to deal with this industry crisis

dragged down by some Chinese buyers, the Singapore rubber Union will hold an emergency meeting this week to study China's breach of contract; Around the 10th of this month, due to China's breach of contract, major rubber dealers in Singapore, Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia have stopped quoting to the Chinese market; The domestic Hainan Rubber Association also suspended the release of the quotation of Hainan natural rubber latex on October 16 in order to avoid the negative impact on the rubber producers and all links of the industry and maintain the healthy and orderly development of the rubber industry due to the recent sharp decline in rubber prices. If China's rubber market continues to be in chaos, China's natural rubber market will face greater difficulties under the pressure of multi dependence in the later stage

second, domestic natural rubber is heavily dependent on imports

at present, China is a large country in global natural rubber demand, and domestic production is far from meeting domestic demand. More than 70% of domestic natural rubber needs to be imported from abroad. At the same time, due to the characteristics of rubber agricultural products (15.81, -0.37, -2.29%, bar), it has a cut-off period. China stops cutting rubber from Yunnan in November and Hainan in December every year. During the domestic cut-off period, domestic demand completely depends on imports and early overstocked inventory. According to the current suspension of the quotation of the main rubber production to China, it will seriously affect the normal supply of domestic natural rubber in the later stage

the current season is gradually turning cold, and the global cut-off period will slowly approach. During the cut-off period, the world will mainly consume inventory. If China's current default situation cannot be effectively improved, international rubber traders may join hands to resist the defaulters in the later stage. If this situation occurs, China's rubber industry will be struggling

at the same time, the sharp decline in the domestic market this round has led to the price of domestic rubber being lower than that of composite rubber, and the price difference between domestic rubber and synthetic rubber has also widened. Some domestic purchases that need to use rubber have begun to buy a small number of batches at this price. Therefore, after this round of Tianjiao slump, it is necessary to re-examine the decline of Tianjiao. The Tianjiao market should not be too bearish in the late stage, and the empty orders that make profits in the early stage can be reduced appropriately

due to the expectation that OPEC will significantly reduce production this week, the US crude oil contract for November rose in electronic trading on Monday, with the highest rise to $74/barrel. Driven by the rise of the crude oil market, the Tokyo rubber market opened higher on Monday and closed the daily limit. Boosted by the external market, yesterday, the Shanghai Rubber 901 contract opened with the daily limit, and then the daily limit was quickly opened to maintain the volatile trend. At around 10 o'clock in the morning, Shanghai Jiaotong once again sealed the trading limit until the end of the day, and the final 901 contract rose 3.97% to 13615 yuan. After the continuous sharp decline of Tianjiao, many parties finally see some hope

"default gate" led to the shortage of major suppliers

recently, affected by the U.S. financial crisis, the automotive industry has continued to report layoffs and production stoppages, and people are not optimistic about the prospects of the automotive industry, which directly led to people's concern about the demand for rubber (13445, -80.00, -0.59%, right), which also led to the sharp decline of Tianjiao. This round of sharp decline made some domestic traders and small factories unable to bear the current huge losses and tore up the agreements previously signed with foreign suppliers

the Singapore rubber union is urgently holding a meeting on China's breach of contract. Some Chinese buyers in breach of contract will be blacklisted and disclosed, and will be reported to the Singapore government and submitted to the Chinese government

at present, the import dependence of domestic natural rubber is very high, and more than 70% of it needs to be imported from abroad. If only relying on the supply of two major agricultural reclamation, it is far from meeting the demand of the domestic market. What is more pessimistic is that the cut-off period of domestic rubber is November (Yunnan starts to stop cutting rubber) and December (Hainan stops cutting rubber); In addition, due to the default of domestic enterprises, around the 10th of this month, major rubber merchants in Singapore, Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia have stopped quoting to the Chinese market

analyst Ding Chun said that during the cut-off period of domestic rubber, domestic demand completely depends on imports and early overstocked inventory. At present, the suspension of quotation for China's main rubber will seriously affect the normal supply of domestic natural rubber in the later stage

Zhang Bing, an international futures analyst, believes that if the "default door" enterprises are blacklisted and refuse to import goods to these enterprises, it will undoubtedly have a significant impact on China's tire industry. However, on the other hand, this default event cannot be ruled out. After all, China is the largest country in the demand for natural rubber, and foreign traders will not have money not to earn the backlog of inventory, Therefore, it is likely to increase the margin of these defaulting companies in the later stage

Indonesia reduces production, Thai rubber farmers refuse to sell

the continuous decline in the price of natural rubber in recent times has brought major challenges to Southeast Asian rubber producing countries. In order to resist the decline in rubber prices, the Indonesian Minister of Agriculture said that the country plans to cut rubber production by 30% to raise the rapidly declining rubber prices. He said that due to the global economic slowdown and the decline in demand in the automotive industry, rubber prices will continue to remain weak. Indonesia is expected to produce about 2.9 million tons of rubber this year, up from 2.75 million tons in 2007

the president of the Indonesian Rubber Association said, "the Ministry of agriculture has asked farmers to adjust the frequency of rubber cutting from every two days to every three days, so as to reduce the supply of raw materials entering the market."

in addition, Thailand, the third largest rubber producer in the world, also called for reducing the amount of rubber cutting and giving up old rubber trees to support the falling rubber prices

a few years ago, Thai rubber farmers had a high income, and a large part of them employed foreign labor to cut rubber. Now the decline in rubber prices, according to the current market quotation, is not even enough to pay the employment expenses. Therefore, with the falling of rubber prices, rubber farmers in southern Thailand have begun to refuse to sell

the European and American auto industry has reduced production

now the financial storm has affected the real economy. The economic slowdown has greatly reduced people's demand for the auto industry, and the global auto industry is facing unprecedented challenges. Affected by this, automobile manufacturers in Europe, America and Japan had to take measures to reduce production

Opel, a German automaker, recently said that the impact of the global financial storm had led to a sharp decline in automotive demand. They had decided to close an assembly plant for three weeks to reduce unnecessary expenses and waste. BMW announced that it would suspend the Leipzig factory business in the last week of October. In addition, the joint venture projects of some multinational automobile enterprises in China have entered a state of stagnation. For example, the domestic projects of Renault, the cooperation projects between Fiat and Chery and other domestic enterprises, and Toyota has also announced to slow down the pace of production in China

in addition, yesterday's national statistics showed that China's tire production in September increased by 6.8% year-on-year to 45.6 million. In September, the total output of synthetic rubber was 17 million tons, continuously deepening the supply side structural reform, with a year-on-year decrease of 5.7%. Data show that from January to September this year, the total tire output was 425.92 million, an increase of 12.9% year-on-year, and the total synthetic rubber output was 1.76 million tons, an increase of 9% year-on-year

Ding Chun, an analyst at Southwest futures, said that the rapid decline in the natural rubber market has caused losses to all rubber industries, and rubber producing countries have continuously introduced measures to raise the price of natural rubber. At present, the financial crisis has affected the real economy. The downstream automotive industry is depressed, and the demand for tires has been weak. Tianjiao rebounded strongly after a continuous slump, but yesterday's rebound has not broken the downward trend of Tianjiao

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