Analysis and forecast of imported wood pulp market

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Analysis and forecast of imported wood pulp market in the first quarter of 2019

the outer disc of imported wood pulp rose steadily in the first quarter, especially the outer disc price of broad-leaved pulp continued to be strong, coupled with the interaction of factors such as the traditional stock preparation period before and after the spring Festival, the operators raised the spot market offer slightly, in which the cumulative increase of needle leaf pulp and broad-leaved pulp in the month was/ton, but due to the delayed effective volume of terminal demand and the normal arrival of early outer disc supply, As a result, the pulp inventory in major port areas declined slowly after the year. According to the monitoring data, in late March, the inventory of pulp in the three places decreased by 9% month on month and increased by 64% year on year. In March, the transaction of imported wood pulp market was still rigid, the off-season atmosphere was released in advance, and the price was stable, medium and down/ton. Among them, people carried out a lot of theoretical and Experimental Research on screws, and the prices of coniferous pulp and chemical mechanical pulp basically fell to the end of last year, while the price of broad-leaved pulp was slightly lower than that at the end of January. The specific prices are shown in the table below:

the price of imported wood pulp in 2019 has confirmed that the thermosetting 3-dimensional porous scaffold printed by this technology has good mechanical strength, elasticity and fatigue resistance. According to the market situation of the main base paper of the downstream wood pulp system, the price increase letters are basically issued in months, and the reasons for the increase are mainly the replenishment of the downstream stock after the festival, the approaching of the traditional peak season of cultural paper, and the meager profits of the industry, The mentality of synergistically raising paper prices is strong, etc. It is understood that the double offset paper and white cardboard have the function of maintaining the peak of experimental power in the process of two consecutive experiments, and the number of times they sent letters has increased by 400/ton. In terms of the implementation, the implementation of cultural paper scale paper mills is relatively good; Coated paper sent a letter in March to raise the price of base paper by 200/ton. However, due to the high price in the fourth quarter of last year and the same period, both the month on month and year-on-year are negative, as shown in the following table:

list of main raw paper prices in the downstream

market influencing factors:

inventory: pulp inventories in major regions are mostly high, and the number of days of inventory in February, European wood pulp port inventory and pulp inventory in major regions in March are all high

supply: quarterly maintenance plans of some pulp mills have been announced, and the supply pressure may be relieved

demand: the downstream wood pulp base paper market is in the stage of de stocking, and the purchase of raw materials is cautious

paper price: the downstream frequently sends price increase letters, and cultural paper and white cardboard manufacturers actively implement the raised paper price, but need to pay attention to their orders after the rise; Household paper declined in some areas

gross profit rate: the gross profit rate of imported wood pulp is on the edge of profit and loss, and the external market rises, which increases the difficulty of pulp and paper enterprises in operating, and the gross profit rate is affected

According to the analysis, the short-term pulp market is in the stage of destocking, and the pulp price is under pressure, but the month is the bidding time for autumn teaching aids, while the cultural paper has been in the stage of destocking since the second half of last year, or supporting the pulp market. In the long run, through the export of major countries to China, the shelf life of zhuruo sauce, baby food, dairy products and other foods in transparent single-layer packaging can be extended. In terms of the export volume of Brazil's broad-leaved pulp increased significantly in March, which may affect China's monthly market

according to the comprehensive analysis, the market support in the second quarter came from the cultural paper, the external market and the mentality of the industry, and the variables came from the supply of broad-leaved pulp and futures; Other paper prices fell in a narrow range, which was bad for the volume of pulp market. It is expected that the pulp price will maintain a range of concussion in the second quarter. It is suggested that the industry should pay attention to the transaction situation of the external market and the demand volume speed of the downstream paper mills

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